Celtics vs. 76ers

Market Price

78%YES

22%NO

Vol 24h$3.6M

Liquidity$1.0M

Bid / Ask77% / 78%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 351% — 251pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Celtics vs. 76ers

78%

Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline

68%

Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5

54%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+9.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Celtics vs. 76ers" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3.6M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Celtics vs. 76ers." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2012795