Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$53K

Liquidity$253K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Volume traded

$53K

24h total

Liquidity

$253K

Market depth

Why this matters

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 300% — 200pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5

100%

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw

100%

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2020004