Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 26?

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 26?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$19K

Bid / Ask2% / 4%

Spread2.20pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40

price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on Ap

95%

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30

price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on Ap

price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,50

price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on Ap

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 26?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2023809