2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$134K
Bid / Ask
48% / 49%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
2026 Balance of Power: Other
2026
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
40% YES
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +8.0pp
41% → 49%
Mar 14, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Mar 15, 2026
Current
48% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562828
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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