Markets/2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

16%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$659

Liquidity

$114K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

2026 Balance of Power: Other

2026

Full event →

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

36%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

16%

2026 Balance of Power: Other

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $659 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562831