Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$11K

Liquidity$102K

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-17.9pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Real Madrid CF (-2.5) market's collapse to a 0% YES price is significant due to the collective shift in its sibling markets, particularly the simultaneous drop of the Toulouse FC (-2.5) and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5) markets, indicating a strong consensus that Real Madrid will not achieve a victory margin exceeding 2.5 goals in this event cluster. This dramatic price movement suggests a widespread reevaluation of projected goal differentials across multiple related markets.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 200% — 100pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Real Madrid CF

Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03

100%

Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

100%

Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2031152