RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$199K

Liquidity$237K

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

14%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

13pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$199K

24h total

Liquidity

$237K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-13.4pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market matters because recent news confirms Real Madrid's victory, a decisive factor that likely explains the 14 percentage point drop in the YES price for Over 2.5 goals. The current 0% YES price suggests traders anticipate a low-scoring game, despite Real Madrid's offensive capabilities in a title race context.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF:

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.

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RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03

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Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $199K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2031154