Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5

Market Price

52%YES

48%NO

Vol 24h$31K

Liquidity$107K

Bid / Ask51% / 53%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedApr 20, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5: 72%, Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5: 52%, Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5: 50%.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5

72%

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5

52%

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5

50%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-50.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2036338