Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$161K

Liquidity$194K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 4, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.1pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market's 100% price indicates a perceived certainty of AS Roma winning their May 4th, 2026 match. The market's immediate relevance is amplified by the stark contrast with the 0% prices for AS Roma's April 5th, 2026 match and Italy winning on March 31st, 2026, suggesting a significant shift in expected outcomes or an event occurring between those dates that guarantees a win for AS Roma on May 4th.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets9 markets

9 deadline markets. Combined YES = 400% — 300pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

AS Roma

AS Roma win on 2026-05-04

100%

Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5

100%

Sevilla FC

Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $161K has been traded. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2038192