Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Market Price

51%YES

49%NO

Vol 24h$535

Liquidity$2

Bid / Ask2% / 99%

Spread97.00pp

ClosedApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~44% chance none resolve YES.

Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5

51%

Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $535 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 97.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2041189