Markets/Will Tina Shah be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07?

Will Tina Shah be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07?

Market Price

11%YES

89%NO

FM Estimate

10%

Vol 24h$136

Liquidity$3K

Bid / Ask10% / 12%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesJun 2, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals-0.7pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Rebecca Bennett be the Democratic nominee for

Rebecca Bennett be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07

77%

Tina Shah be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07

11%

Michael Roth be the Democratic nominee for NJ

Michael Roth be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07

10%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tina Shah be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $136 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Will Tina Shah be the Democratic nominee for NJ-07?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2044370