LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$2.8M

Liquidity$0

ClosedApr 30, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

74%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

73pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$2.8M

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-49.4pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 128% — 28pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winne

100%

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL

LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group

28%

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) -

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Gr

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2.8M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053128