Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5

Market Price

48%YES

52%NO

Vol 24h$137

Liquidity$2K

Bid / Ask46% / 50%

Spread4.00pp

ClosedApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 135% — 35pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Paul George: Points O/U 17.5

48%

Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5

48%

Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5

39%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $137 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2073308