Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5

Market Price

53%YES

47%NO

FM Estimate

50%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.9pp

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$8K

Bid / Ask52% / 54%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedApr 27, 2026

Macro fundamentals-2.9pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 131% — 31pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5

53%

Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 4.5

41%

Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 3.5

38%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2074840