Markets/Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$968K

Liquidity$549K

ClosesApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets. Combined YES = 135% — 35pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

100%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - P

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wall

35%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-27.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $968K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2077210