Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3?

Market Price

29%YES

71%NO

FM Estimate

26%

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$19K

Bid / Ask31% / 32%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 3, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.8pp

low confidence · 1 signals

Why this matters

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

6 deadline markets. Combined YES = 102% — 2pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,0

price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on M

70%

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,0

price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on M

29%

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,0

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on M

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-1.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 3?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2086784