Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$6K

Liquidity$42K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesMay 4, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This prediction market matters due to a high consensus of 100% that Ethereum will be above $1,800 on May 4, aligning with the current market price and indicating strong market confidence, despite a contradiction signal in sibling markets suggesting collective overpricing in that cluster. The market's significance is further underscored by the 1.5% increase in Ethereum's price alongside a similar rise in Bitcoin and S&P 500 Futures, reflecting a positive sentiment for digital assets.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets23 markets

23 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1227% — 1127pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4?

price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 4?

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 4

100%

price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 4?

price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 4

100%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 4?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2097826