Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$28K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosesMay 5, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is significant as it reflects a high degree of certainty, at 100%, that Ethereum will trade above $1,800 on May 5. The confluence of this price point with consistently high probabilities across related April contracts suggests a strong market consensus on sustained positive Ethereum price action in the short to medium term, further supported by a marginal positive movement in Ethereum's current spot price.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets23 markets

23 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1257% — 1157pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5?

price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 4?

price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 4

100%

price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 4?

price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 4

100%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2106972