Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?
Market Price
The prediction market on whether Trump will speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May matters due to the 8 percentage point decline in the YES price over the past day, falling from 74% to 66%. This price momentum shift indicates a recent reassessment of the likelihood of this event occurring, making its current 66% valuation a key data point for understanding market sentiment.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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18 deadline markets. Combined YES = 584% — 484pp excess suggests collective overpricing.
Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?
Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?" at 67% YES / 33% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 67%, NO 33%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2117149