Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$33K

Liquidity$0

ClosedApr 30, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

59%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

58pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$33K

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-49.9pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2119151