Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30?

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$20K

Liquidity$13K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.20pp

ClosesMay 1, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets22 markets

22 deadline markets. Market implies ~82% chance none resolve YES.

Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30?

Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30

12%

Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?

Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3

Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30?

Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-2.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2122010