Markets/Andreeva vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5

Andreeva vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

52%

Vol 24h$105

Liquidity$0

ClosesMay 8, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.5pp

low confidence · 1 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Andreeva vs. Kostyuk Match O/U 23.5 market is significant as the FM Estimate aligns precisely with the current market price, indicating a consensus on the projected match length. This convergence suggests that market participants have fully incorporated available information, making it a key indicator of expected performance in this specific contest.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Andreeva vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $105 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Andreeva vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2128442