Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Closes July 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$28K
Liquidity
$835K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2026
49 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
10% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558936
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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