Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$197K
Liquidity
$406K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2028
37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $197K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561232
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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