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Markets/Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Closes November 7, 2028

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$642K

Liquidity

$578K

Expert Signal

1%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $642K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562007