Markets/Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:14 AM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

56%YES

44%NO

Volume 24h

$604

Liquidity

$187K

Bid / Ask

56% / 57%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 56%99%

Buy YES@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $604 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/565065

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