Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$33K
Liquidity
$49K
Bid / Ask
51% / 52%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
51%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Netanyahu out by June 30?
March
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 14, 2026
Biggest move: +8.0pp
37% → 45%
Mar 11, 2026
Peak probability
53% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
48% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Netanyahu out by end of 2026?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Netanyahu out by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/567688
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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