Markets/Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:40 AM UTC

Closes May 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+4.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 18, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569339