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Markets/Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
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Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Closes August 4, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
56%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +0.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓, DXY +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +0.9% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓, DXY +0.1% ↑
+1.8pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute09:04 AM

Polymarket Price

56%YES
44%NO

Volume 24h

$142

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

54% / 58%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $142 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599303

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket56%anchor
PredictIt——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 56%99%
Buy YES@ 56¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this