Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$87K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601828
This event has 16 active outcome markets. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 42%, Flávio Bolsonaro: 40%, Renan Santos: 6%.
Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
2% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+33.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this