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Markets/Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
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Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$4K
Liquidity$72K
Bid / Ask4% / 5%
Spread0.30pp
ClosesJun 30, 2026

FM Estimate

4%

Market Price

4%
Aligned
Historical patterns-1.0pp
Macro fundamentals+0.8pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. December 31, 2027: 19%, end of 2026: 9%, September 30, 2026: 7%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~59%.

China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
19%
China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
7%

China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

4%
China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-0.8pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/604470