Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
Closed December 31, 2025
ForecastMind sees this +3.9pp above current market price; market at 4% may be underpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD -0.311 ↓, VIX +11.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
2% / 5%
Spread
2.80pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/610381
This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 21%, June 30, 2026: 9%, June 30, 2026: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~67%.
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+14.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this