Markets/Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:42 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

$38K

Liquidity

$66K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 24, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

33% → 22%

Mar 20, 2026

Peak probability

36% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

25% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/616903