Markets/Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:09 PM UTC

Closes June 2, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

32%YES

69%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

30% / 32%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 32%99%

Buy YES@ 32¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629040

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