Markets/Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:25 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$8K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/630721

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