Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$29K
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
7% / 30%
Spread
23.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 23.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665272
This event has 2 active outcome markets. Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?: 19%, Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026?: 19%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~62%.
Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
21% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this