US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$37K
Bid / Ask
42% / 44%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
June
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665325
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