Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$40K
Bid / Ask
65% / 66%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
67%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Current
70% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 18, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Starmer out by December 31, 2026?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 67%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Starmer out by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/666655
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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