Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:42 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

66%YES

34%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$73K

Bid / Ask

65% / 67%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

66%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+18.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 1, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: -11.5pp

61% → 50%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

70% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

66% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 66%99%

Buy YES@ 66¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 34¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 66%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676739