Markets/Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:09 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$39

Liquidity

$73K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%

½ Kelly3.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $39 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676740