Markets/OpenAI IPO before 2027?

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:49 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

35% / 37%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +11.5pp

34% → 46%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

46% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

37% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI IPO before 2027?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "OpenAI IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676785