Markets/Databricks IPO before 2027?

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:21 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

32%YES

69%NO

Volume 24h

$68K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

30% / 33%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

27% → 37%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

37% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

33% YES (+5.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 32%99%

Buy YES@ 32¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 69¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Databricks IPO before 2027?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $68K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Databricks IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676796