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Markets/Iran Nuke before 2027?
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Iran Nuke before 2027?

10%YES
90%NO
Vol 24h$10K
Liquidity$82K
Bid / Ask9% / 10%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026

FM Estimate

7%

Market Price

10%
↑ Overpriced 2.4pp
Macro fundamentals-4.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 24%, Iran Nuke before 2027?: 10%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~67%.

U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%

Iran Nuke before 2027?

10%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran Nuke before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Iran Nuke before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677396