Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
Closed October 31, 2025
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$615
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
2% / 4%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by…
March
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+15.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $615 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on October 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677398
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