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Markets/Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
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Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$287

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $287 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690198

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this