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Markets/Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES
74%NO

Volume 24h

$893

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

2% / 50%

Spread

47.40pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $893 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 47.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690205

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 26%99%
Buy YES@ 26¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 74¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this