Markets/AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:36 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$196

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

17% / 18%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +7.5pp

14% → 22%

Mar 11, 2026

Peak probability

25% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

18% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

-1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 80¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.5%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $196 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/691340