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Markets/Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
16%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.5% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +1.5% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓
+1.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute09:14 AM

Polymarket Price

16%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$5

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692261

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 16%99%
Buy YES@ 16¢
Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this