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Markets/Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
34%FIS
+1ppvs market 34%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 34% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.4% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.4% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+3.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute08:42 AM

Polymarket Price

34%YES
67%NO

Volume 24h

$38

Liquidity

$272

Bid / Ask

12% / 55%

Spread

42.20pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 42.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692296

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢
Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 67¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this