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Markets/Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES
85%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

10% / 20%

Spread

9.40pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 9.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692312

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 15%99%
Buy YES@ 15¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this